I tend to be one of those guys who thinks about the downside more than
the upside. It may be visceral, or it may be rational. I don't know.
Maybe it is that good news can always take care of itself.
In that spirit, or lack of spirit, I recommend this piece in the FT
(registration required) by the ever-incisive Gillian Tett. The title
is, "Five reasons the summer curse may strike." No prediction intended
on my part, but this is a good list of the downside risks, and it made
me think.
I found it interesting that Tett includes the Libor scandal as
a risk for the markets more broadly; I had not thought of that, but it
does undermine confidence.
She leaves out profit margins being wide, and therefore
at risk of reverting downward. But that is a longer-term matter, and her
piece is focused on the here and now.
